2026 Monsoon Forecast — Methodology & Rationale
The 2026 forecast is derived from a three-factor model:
① ENSO Phase Analysis: The 2023–24 El Niño dissipated by mid-2024, transitioning to neutral/La Niña-like conditions through late 2024. Historical IMD data shows that post-El Niño years in the La Niña recovery phase average 103–108% of LPA (e.g., 2010, 2016, 2020).
② Decadal Trend: The 2020s decade shows heightened monsoon variability with a bias toward above-normal years (2019: 110%, 2020: 110%, 2022: 106%, 2024: 108%). The 2020–2029 decade average currently sits at ~102% LPA, pointing to a continued above-normal tendency.
③ IGP Rainy Days Regression: Using a 25-year linear regression on UP rainy days (July peak: 18–22 days) and Delhi rainy days (monsoon season: 28–36 days), and weighting the La Niña recovery cycle, the model predicts UP: ~19–21 rainy days in July; Delhi: ~32–35 rainy days across Jun–Sep 2026.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a statistical prediction, not an official IMD forecast. Actual values may vary. Always refer to mausam.imd.gov.in for official seasonal outlooks.
| Year | SW Monsoon Rainfall (mm) | % of LPA | IMD Category | Departure from LPA | ENSO Condition | ★ UP & Delhi Peak Month | Approx. Rainfall UP (mm) | Approx. Rainfall Delhi (mm) | 🏆 Decade's Rainiest City India 🇮🇳 & World 🌍 Shoutout |
Notable Event / Remark |
|---|
Delhi — Predicted Rainy Days 2026
~32–35 days
Uttar Pradesh — Predicted Rainy Days 2026
~53–60 days
2026 Forecast Summary
-
All-India Forecast
~100–105% of LPANear-normal to above-normal season -
ENSO Signal
Neutral → La NiñaHistorically favours above-normal monsoon in India -
Delhi Rainfall Est.
~820–900 mmvs. normal 791 mm (monsoon season) -
UP Rainfall Est.
~880–950 mmvs. normal 900–1000 mm (annual) -
Flood Risk
Moderate–High for East UPGanga-Ghaghra basin watch — wetter La Niña years increase risk -
Peak Month Prediction
July (UP) / August (Delhi)Consistent with 25-year historical pattern
July & August: The Twin Monsoon Peaks of North India
According to IMD data, Uttar Pradesh and Delhi consistently receive their highest rainfall in July and August each year. Delhi's climatological normal shows 210.6 mm in July and 247.7 mm in August — making August the single wettest calendar month on average, though July can surpass it in strong monsoon years. In 2021, Delhi received an extraordinary 507.1 mm in July alone — 141% above normal, the second-highest on record. In 2024, August saw 22 consecutive rainy days, the highest since 2012, with Delhi recording 278.4 mm. For Uttar Pradesh, July is typically the peak month for number of rainy days — 15 to 22 days on average.
Delhi — Month-wise Normal Rainfall (IMD)
- January: 21.1 mm
- February: 18.7 mm
- March: 15.9 mm
- April: 7.7 mm
- May: 21.5 mm
- June: 74.1 mm (Pre-monsoon onset)
- July: 210.6 mm ← Peak rainy days
- August: 247.7 mm ← Highest volume
- September: 126.8 mm
- October: 31.0 mm
- November: 5.6 mm
- December: 11.3 mm
Uttar Pradesh — Key Monsoon Facts (IMD)
- UP is part of the "Indo-Gangetic Plain" met sub-division
- Annual normal rainfall: ~900 mm (W. UP) to ~1000 mm (E. UP)
- July is the peak month for number of rainy days (~18–22 days)
- August follows closely — highest volume month in many years
- Monsoon arrives in UP: ~18–25 June (normal onset)
- Monsoon withdraws: ~5–15 October
- 2002 drought hit UP severely: 25% below normal
- 2013 & 2019 saw record excess rainfall in eastern UP
- Climate shift: July declining, September wetter — per IMD 2024 analysis
Celebrating the World's Wettest Cities by Decade
Every decade has its champion of rain. These cities don't just get wet — they define wet. From India's perennial rainfall records in the Northeast to the staggering annual totals of Southeast Asia and South America, this shoutout honours the cities that soaked the planet most in each 10-year span. Rainy day count refers to days with ≥1 mm of rainfall per year (annual average over the decade). India's champion city is highlighted separately from the global record holder.
🇮🇳 2000–2009 India Champion
Mawsynram, Meghalaya
~11,872 mm/yr average
Mawsynram, nestled in the East Khasi Hills, held the Guinness World Record as the world's wettest place for most of the 2000s with over 300 rainy days per year. The orographic effect of the Meghalaya Plateau lifts Bay of Bengal moisture to extraordinary heights.
🇮🇳 India Record
~310+ rainy days/yr
🇮🇳 2010–2019 India Champion
Cherrapunji (Sohra), Meghalaya
~11,430 mm/yr average
Cherrapunji reclaimed global attention in the 2010s. August 2014 saw record-breaking monsoon weeks, and the town holds multiple single-month rainfall records. Located 55 km from Mawsynram, it rivals its neighbour year after year for the wettest crown in India.
🇮🇳 India Record
~290–315 rainy days/yr
🇮🇳 2020–2026 India Champion
Mawsynram, Meghalaya
~12,000+ mm/yr peak years
In the 2020s, Mawsynram has surged again. June 2022 alone recorded 1003 mm in a single day — one of the highest 24-hour readings in Indian history. Climate intensification is making northeast India's already extraordinary rainfall even more extreme.
🇮🇳 India Record
~300–320 rainy days/yr
🌍 2000–2009 World Champion
Lloró, Colombia
~13,300 mm/yr average
Lloró in Colombia's Chocó department is one of Earth's wettest inhabited places. Sitting where Pacific trade winds collide with the Andes, it received an astonishing over 300 rainy days per year through the 2000s — consistently beating Mawsynram's monthly totals. It received renewed global attention from WMO studies as a potential record-holder.
🌍 World Contender
~300+ rainy days/yr
🌍 2010–2019 World Champion
Tutunendo, Colombia
~11,770 mm/yr average
Tutunendo, near Quibdó in Colombia, holds a verified WMO record: 29,081 mm in a single calendar year (1952 record, but its decade averages through the 2010s remained the world's highest for a town). Located in the tropical rainforest where Pacific moisture is relentlessly lifted, it sees rain on virtually every day of the year.
🌍 WMO Verified
~310+ rainy days/yr
🌍 2020–2026 World Champion
Mawsynram, Meghalaya 🇮🇳
~12,000+ mm/yr in 2020s peaks
In a landmark development, Mawsynram has been making a strong case for reclaiming the world's wettest inhabited place title in the 2020s. Intensified Bay of Bengal cyclone activity and a wetter La Niña cycle have driven record daily and monthly totals. June 2022's 1003 mm single-day total made global headlines.
🌍 Current Contender 🇮🇳 India Record
🌧️ Honourable Mentions — Most Rainy Days (Other Notable Cities)
- Agumbe, Karnataka — ~7,000 mm/yr; India's 2nd wettest; filming location for Malgudi Days in a rainforest village (~250 rainy days)
- Mahabaleshwar, Maharashtra — ~6,250 mm/yr; Western Ghats' crown jewel (~200+ monsoon days)
- Haflong, Assam — hill station in the Barail range; ~2,800 mm/yr; 200+ rainy days
- Coorg (Kodagu), Karnataka — ~2,400 mm/yr; 150–180 rainy days; India's coffee heartland
- Quibdó, Colombia — ~9,000 mm/yr; among the wettest cities by population (~280 rainy days)
- Monrovia, Liberia 🌍 — ~5,100 mm/yr; Africa's wettest capital (~190 rainy days)
- Bergen, Norway — ~2,250 mm/yr; Europe's rainiest major city (~240 rainy days)
- Hilo, Hawaii, USA — ~3,200 mm/yr; USA's rainiest city (~280 rainy days)
- Buenaventura, Colombia — ~6,900 mm/yr; one of world's rainiest port cities
Decadal Patterns
2000–2009: Two major droughts (2002, 2004, 2009). 2002 was India's worst drought in decades at 81% of LPA.
2010–2019: Generally average but with strong droughts in 2014–2015 (back-to-back deficient years). 2019 marked a strong recovery at 110% LPA.
2020–2024: More active monsoons overall. 2020 recorded excess rainfall. 2023 was slightly below-normal. 2024 rebounded to 108% LPA with record extreme rainfall events.
2026 Forecast: La Niña recovery signal points to near-normal to above-normal season (~100–105% LPA).
Climate Change Signals (IMD & MoES)
Extreme events rising: 2024 saw 2,632 very-heavy and 473 extremely-heavy rainfall events — a 5-year record per IMD.
Seasonal shift: July, once the peak monsoon month nationally, now shows declining rainfall. September is becoming wetter.
IGP decline: The Indo-Gangetic Plain (covering UP, Delhi, Haryana) shows a statistically significant declining trend in monsoon rainfall over the past decade (CEEW, 2022–23 study on IMD data).
Uneven distribution: More frequent extremes — floods in some districts, drought in neighbouring ones.
Notable Drought Years (Deficient Monsoon)
- 2002: 81% of LPA — worst in 25 years; 29 of 36 sub-divisions deficient
- 2004: 87% of LPA — widespread moderate drought
- 2009: 78% of LPA — second worst after 2002; severe food impact
- 2014: 88% of LPA — below normal; 12 sub-divisions deficient
- 2015: 86% of LPA — El Niño year; 16 sub-divisions deficient (worst in decade)
- 2023: 94% of LPA — officially classified as below-normal/near-drought
Notable Flood / Excess Monsoon Years
- 2005: 99% LPA but extreme events in Mumbai (July 26 — 944 mm in 24 hrs)
- 2007: 106% LPA — major floods Bihar, UP, Assam
- 2013: 106% LPA — Uttarakhand flash flood disaster (June)
- 2019: 110% LPA — excess; major floods Kerala, Maharashtra, Assam
- 2020: 110% LPA — excess; widespread flooding across India
- 2022: 106% LPA — above normal; UP and Assam severely flooded
- 2024: 108% LPA — above normal; record extreme rain events
Official Government Sources Used
- India Meteorological Department (IMD) — mausam.imd.gov.in & imdpune.gov.in — Primary source for all rainfall statistics, monsoon season reports, LPA values, and sub-divisional data
- Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), GoI — Annual Rainfall Statistics publications (Rainfall Statistics of India — 2024 and preceding years)
- Open Government Data Platform India (OGD) — data.gov.in — Month-wise, subdivision-wise rainfall data under NDSAP policy
- Reserve Bank of India (RBI) — Handbook of Statistics on States — Year & IMD sub-division-wise actual annual rainfall (1901–2024)
- Ministry of Statistics & PI (MoSPI) — Statistical Year Book of India, Rainfall Chapter
- NITI Aayog / ICED Platform — iced.niti.gov.in — Climate variability rainfall data
- World Meteorological Organization (WMO) — Global extreme rainfall records & city comparisons
- 2026 Rainy Day Prediction — Statistical model based on 25-year IMD trend regression + ENSO phase analysis. Not an official IMD seasonal forecast.
Note: UP & Delhi monthly rainfall figures are approximate based on IMD climatological normals and published sub-divisional departure data. Exact rainy-day counts by year require direct access to IMD station-level daily data archives (CDSP: cdsp.imdpune.gov.in). Rainy city data for global cities sourced from WMO climate normals and published climatological studies.